Now the exact running orders have been revealed by the producers, one will look more closely at what the favourites in this year’s contest are up to. Upcoming fan concerts will give us a sneak peak at how well-rehearsed those contenders are. Are they vocally in tune? Do they charm their way to victory? And obviously pundits will start to guess what jurors will think of such live performances. For them the annual shadow-jury of EuroVoix.com (EuroJury) will most definitely provide some new insights. ■ By: Gert Waterink ■
But what about those songs that have been completely forgotten in this year’s Eurovision season? Or those entries that we simply aren’t taking into account for the best possible result? Time to look for a few of such songs; compositions/performances that actually struck me in a positive way, but that didn’t got any traction in both the odds and fan polls. And perhaps there’s some nice value left in the odds for these songs, in case you want to think outside the box and place a bet.
Poland (Oddschecker: 37th, EurovisionWorld Odds: 29th)
Luna sings ‘The Tower’ ■ © TVP, 2024
Let’s start with Poland. In my opinion a true ‘scandi-gem’. Admittedly, vocally Luna wasn’t that secure in her first live rendition of ‘The Tower’. But the composition simply is refined enough to stand out from a pack of 37 entries. Luna reminds me a bit of Ellie Goulding, with a dash of Marina And The Diamonds. And while Luna thinks she looks too much like S10’s sister, her looks are remarkable nonetheless. Like Mustii, she is very well aware on how to bring about refined and unique artsy staging ideas. On the whole this might be the best Polish entry since Edyta Gorniak won silver in 1994. Admittedly her draw is slightly problematic coming right after Ukraine in the first semi-final, but it is a competitively strong first half anyway. For the betters; I think it’ll qualify. This will get out of the Bottom 10 from the odds and Poland’s odds will shorten coming weeks.
San Marino (Oddschecker: 36th, EurovisionWorld Odds: 37th)
To be frank, San Marino has always been made ridiculous since their admission to the contest in 2008. On many occasions we understood why. A micro nation like San Marino can only exist because of tourism and progressive taxation as a mild tax haven. Thus artists mostly need to be imported. So does it go with Spanish rock band Megara. But I think a bit more respect is needed. Eventually also Monaco managed to win the contest. And it is my sincere opinion that San Marino has chosen their most competitive and serious effort to date. ’11:11’ is not just a follow-up of Achille Lauro; it’s a more serious rock effort, which actually this time is hummable. Coming right after Spain, San Marino comes across as a bit more….quality. Grab those odds of 4 or more in the Betfair Exchange ‘To Qualify’ market.
Luxembourg (Oddschecker: 29th, EurovisionWorld Odds: 35th)
It’s always wonderful if a founding father of the contest returns. In 2011 it was great to see Italy reappear, and from that moment onwards it has resulted in the golden age of Eurovision for Italy. And I think it can happen with Luxembourg as well. Tali Golergant is a wonderful performer who oozes charisma on stage. She has a charming Alma-aura hoovering around her as well (France, Eurovision 2017). Also vocally she brings about the best female bop of this song contest, which might be helpful with juries. It’s at least the one bop with the better melody. The producers made sure the entire Benelux will be back in the Grand Final by placing Luxembourg in this last running order spot. This will qualify with relative ease; she even doesn’t need to be a ‘Fighter’.
Germany (Oddschecker: 26th, EurovisionWorld Odds: 32nd)
Perhaps I was the only ‘pundit’ who was heavily charmed by this year’s German national final. With so many countries on the brink of electing their own Käärija, Chanel or Måneskin, Germany really focused on more intimate candidates or down-tempo songs. ‘Always On The Run’ is a great rock melody in the vein of Rag’N’Bone Man. The song did get some airplay on Dutch radio channels. And I wouldn’t be surprised if the excellent singer Isaak will be noticed by the jurors of EuroJury…..and even the official judges at Eurovision. On the Exchange market it’s on offer in the TOP 10 market with odds as high as 35.
Latvia (Oddschecker: 18th, EurovisionWorld Odds: 28th)
Dons sings ‘Hollow’ ■ © Universal Music, 2024
One of the more understated down-tempo entries of this contest, performed by a remarkable singer. Vocally ánd physically Dons stands out from the pack with his song ‘Hollow’. With a voice that is reminiscent of Jonathan Jeremiah, a rock ‘ballad’ that could’ve been on a Hozier album, and attractive bald looks, this cóúld have enough televote appeal to make it to the grand final. In a sea of up-tempo show, this should be in contention of a jury wildcard (íf there only was one). While on paper it might look as if the producers didn’t ‘help’ Dons, but Denmark and Armenia performing in front of Latvia and Spain coming after Latvia, does not really scream ‘big contenders will eat Dons alive’. And it’s a fine breath of quality in that section of the running order. With odds of 250 available in the outright winner market, this should be one to look out for when all semi-final trading markets open up. 10th place in the second semi-final mightttt be in the cards. Or 11th?
Spain (Oddschecker: 21st, EurovisionWorld Odds: 25th)
Obviously we should be on the look-out to other songs doing well in the televote. Yes, the basket is stuffed with novelty acts with ditto naughty messages. But the Spanish entry ‘Bitch’ (yes yes, the translation of ‘Zorra’), performed by Nebulossa, didn’t end on top of that basket so far. The entry is pretty much forgotten by most fans. Which is surprising, as cheeky old school disco can cheer up audiences at home. Just have a look at San Marino 2019 (Serhat – ‘Say Na Na Na’, 10th in the televote) and Lithuania 2022 (Monika Liu – ‘Sentimentai’, 11th in the televote) and mix it with some butt naked dance choreography; it will then stand out for all the wrong ánd right reasons.
Denmark (Oddschecker: 17th, EurovisionWorld Odds: 27th)
‘Tattoo Light’? At least the sand tones from the winner of 2023 have been re-used for this year’s Danish entry. ‘Sand’ was the most competitive entry from the Dansk Melodi Grand Prix. And frankly, I don’t think there’s anything similar in the second semi-final. Qualification is certainly a possibility. But not just that. The staging concept from this entry is already pretty effective, with lots of sand colours, white strobe lighting effects and some clever laser lighting. From the entries highlighted I do think ‘Sand’ has some caveats. Saba isn’t the best vocalist. But if it qualifies from the stronger semi-final, it could be on the brink of TOP 15. Am I wrong if I say that Austria, performing before Denmark, might have a bit more trouble now?
Norway (Oddschecker: 12th, EurovisionWorld Odds: 14th)
It surprises me that Norway is placed outside the TOP 10 in so many bookmaker rankings. If there’s one Norwegian entry that can score well in both the televote and the jury vote, then it must be Gåte and their celtic-metal song ‘Ulveham’. Lead singer Gunnhild Sundli excels in both the toned down vocal parts of this entry as well as the heavy metal parts. I have this as a certified TOP 10 in the Grand Final, and it’s in with a chance for a TOP 5 placement. Also the staging from Norsk Melodi Grand Prix with a softly spinning wheel where Gunnhild stands on is so much more effectively executed than last year’s Mia & Dion. There are still odds of 5 to 6 available in the TOP 5 Grand Final market. The producers definitely wanted to create a televote-magnet-section with Israel, Norway and Netherlands. It must be for the money I think, since viewing figures of Eurovision are declining.
Belgium (Oddschecker: 6th, EurovisionWorld Odds: 6th)
Mustii sings ‘Before The Party’s Over’ ■ © RTBF, 2024
A false favourite to many, but for me a song that’s composed with in mind some clever storytelling on stage. I see some ‘Common Linnets’ in Mustii’s song ‘Before The Party’s Over’. Not so much because the songs are similar, but because both ‘Calm After The Storm’ and ‘Before The Party’s Over’ have these a-typical build-ups that most Eurovision fans find a red flag; I find it a big green flag. The slow 2 minute build-up will only make the final rousing climax/minute with full orchestrated backing tape and a dozen of choir members stand out even better. And Mustii’s creative acting skills will only help making this the case for Belgium’s second Eurovision victory. In my opinion it has the best running order spot in the second semi-final.
Obviously not all of these 9 entries will make the cut or will be challenging the TOP 10…or even 1st place. But if one is in desperate need of finding some good odds/value for their first ever bet, I would go for these entries.
Fair vs. Unfair
Some last remarks about yesterday’s released running order: at times I really find some of the running order choices questionable to say the least. The televote-magnet-section of Israel-Norway-Netherlands comes across as cynical, while at the same smaller and less financially equipped countries like Serbia and Albania seem to have become sacrificial lambs. It’s the ‘Swedish school’ of doing things perhaps, but it wouldn’t be my style.
The good thing is that the 6 auto-qualifiers now múst perform in the semi-finals. While many say this is an advantage for them, I dare to say that the countries who don’t automatically qualify will start comparing themselves with the unfair treatment of the BIG 5. Countries like Albania and Serbia could now demand that as of next year the 6 auto-qualifiers (the BIG 5 countries, an elitist rule anyway, and the host nation) also must participate in the draw of lots for first or second half. Hence the EBU might have found a way -consciously or unconsciously- to slowly get rid of the BIG 5 rule in the foreseeable future.
To round up my review, by taking into account above 9 songs, this would be my TOP 10 of qualifiers from both semi-finals:
Second Semi-Final
First Semi-Final
Gert's Complex 