apr 27 2024

MALMÖ 2024 ■ Pre-rehearsal TOP 13 prediction

recensies 2024 - templateEvery Eurovision year is different, but is also very much the same. Different, because no score sheet is similar to previous years. Looking at the voting history is only interesting to come up with a vague idea of the amount of points every ranked country gets. So that’s similar every year.

But the winner doesn’t get 180 points anymore these days, while a 7th placed country won’t get 600 points. So there are always funny little records that can be broken. A real nail-biter of a voting sequence, with less than 5 points between the 1st and 2nd place, could be an example of that. Statistically, with the current amount of participating countries, such a record is difficult to be broken. But it could make this year different from previous recent editions. And I think it will happen. Let’s go with my TOP 13 prediction! ■ By: Gert Waterink ■

Nemo_Cover_and_Press_0826-EditSwitzerland vs. Italy

I’m foremost talking about Switzerland and Italy. From the get-go of this national final / internal selection season I could not choose between Nemo and Angelina Mango. Both performers have to deal with a fun, but also complex-to-sing entry. The different vocal techniques that are prone to ‘The Code’ as well as the increased tempo changes of ‘La Noia’, make both songs potential stand-outs with the Eurovision juries. If you then manage to perform this perfectly with almost every performance of both songs, be prepared for an interesting jury voting.

1706087295_SANREMO-2024-ANGELINA-MANGO-In-my-life-I-willBut don’t underestimate its televoting changes either. The Swiss broadcaster wants to maintain the fun identity changes of this entry, by applying for the qualities of last year’s staging director that helped Käärija sail to the silver medal in Liverpool. On the other hand Angelina Mango will be bringing four dancers to the stage in Malmö. The Italian delegation starts to learn that the San Remo stage full of soloists is different from the Eurovision stage. So expect a wonderful cumbia / latin vibe on stage that cóúld be reminiscent of Chanel.

alyona-alyona-jerry-heil-0-scaledUkraine: The best of the dramatic down-tempo songs?

Could Ukraine surprise with their emotive etno-rap-combo ‘Teresa & Maria’? They will be close to a victory too, but I think not close enough. The general atmosphere in Europe tends to push geopolitics away. People want to be entertained in times of hardships, so that cóúld be the dealbreaker this year. On the other hand, I do find this year’s entry from Ukraine vastly to their victorious song from 2022 and last year’s entry that got 6th place. A. Alyona & Jerry Heil will receive a great televote result, in part because of all those millions of Ukrainian diaspora that dictator Putin has spread over Europe.

Joost KleinEscapism from The Netherlands and Croatia

Another fight will be fought between the fun entries from The Netherlands and Croatia. Both countries saw that, given their previous results, they had to radically think out of the box. They need to appeal to televoters! Whether it’s with happy pseudo-folk-rock from Baby Lasagna or with the bck-to-the-90s happy hardcore from Joost. Both entries deserve accolades for trying to appeal to a different, more positive Zeitgeist in Europe. I do think however that Joost has more natural charm on stage and in general emotes a bit better. The ‘Europapa’ stage act will probably feel also a bit more original and unique. It could benefit from the late running order coming May 9th (would there be more talk about Joost on the internet eventually?). Baby Lasagna’s stage act in comparison feels a bit more like an all too calculated Måneskin-Käärija mix.

Baby_Lasagna_03But on the whole both entries come one year too late I think. For a victory that is. They both lack a quality that’s important for a high jury score. I find their placements in the pre-rehearsal betting odds a bit deflated. But I also think that a placement in the lower parts of the TOP 13 is sheer impossible. So in the end both Croatia and The Netherlands should be happy with their wonderful TOP 5 spot.

Israel and France

A lot has been said about Israel, but people tend to forget that ‘Hurricane’ is a good ballad. With a silent pro-Israel story attached to it, many more conservative televoters will solidify the emotional message of this entry. For France that emotional message will mostly be facilitated by a very good jury score. Slimane is a terrific vocalist. While he is overdoing his theatrical performance a bit too much, there’s a strong hint (EuroJury 2024) that jurors will be sensitive for that. Thus, expect good results for Israel and France as well.

Our dear underestimated Norway

Norway has been put under the radar heavily by both the bookmakers and the fans. Undeservedly, as I think it’s again a high quality entry from Norway. Currently I have Gåte in 8th position, but this could be a mild dark horse that could rise in the odds during the rehearsals. And the Norwegians know how to stage; so far the national final and fan concert performances have been met with positive criticism.

Armenia and Germany

Some other surprises are Armenia and Germany, for very different reasons. I wholeheartedly disagree with the comparisons that are being made between Isaak and Michael Rice (ESC 2019). Michael Rice had to deal with a Melodifestivalen reject, whereas Isaak will deliver a much better song with some wonderful hooks and a certain bluegrass blues vibe. Think about Rag’n’Bone Man for a second here. Isaak is radiating warmth, has more natural charm and could surprise with the juries thanks to his vocals.

For Ladaniva there will be some nice televoting points in store. And on the whole I think her etno folk is a bit more appealing to televoters than the slightly more complex ‘Zari’, sang by Marina Satti.

Belgium, Greece and Spain

Rounding up the left hand side of the scoreboard, I can still see Greece surprising a bit more during the rehearsals. And vocally she’s stunning. Something that is an issue with Mustii. His ‘angst’ during the performances of ‘Before The Party Is Over’ is perhaps a bit too much. The result is that he sings in a forced way that makes you hope Gjon’s Tears or Duncan Laurence are standing by to take over for Belgium. And saying this makes me feel a bit sad, because this entry has so many possibilities to do better. Hence it’s nice that Spain is helping us to feel less gloomy again. Their Italo-disco-electro song ‘Zorra’ will be helped a bit by televoters.

And there you have it. My TOP 13 prediction of this year’s Eurovision Song Contest:

  1. 505 points (J: 285 / TV: 220) Switzerland
  2. 500 points (J: 285 / TV: 215) Italy
  3. 460 points (J: 180 / TV: 280) Ukraine
  4. 425 points (J: 115 / TV: 310) The Netherlands
  5. 390 points (J: 150 / TV: 240) Croatia
  6. 265 points (J: 100 / TV: 165) Israel
  7. 250 points (J: 210 / TV: 40) France
  8. 235 points (J: 95 / TV: 140) Norway
  9. 205 points (J: 170 / TV: 35) Germany
  10. 190 points (J: 70 / TV: 120) Armenia
  11. 185 points (J: 95 / TV: 90) Belgium
  12. 145 points (J: 50 / TV: 95) Greece
  13. 125 points (J: 45 / TV: 80) Spain

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